Monsoon Shifts Reshape Farming and Water Crisis in Vidarbha

thenewsdirt
Jun 20
7 min read

The monsoon's arrival date has been shifting, its intensity fluctuating wildly, and its distribution becoming increasingly erratic across the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra.

Over the past decade, this cotton and soybean heartland has witnessed dramatic changes in rainfall patterns that have fundamentally altered agricultural practices and rural livelihoods.

The consequences extend far beyond delayed sowing seasons, creating a cascade of effects that touch every aspect of farming life in this drought-prone region.

Shifting Monsoon Patterns Transform Agricultural Calendar

The India Meteorological Department officially revised the monsoon onset date for Vidarbha from June 10 to June 15 in 2019, acknowledging a systematic delay that had become the norm rather than the exception.

This change reflected ground realities that farmers had been experiencing for years. Between 2005 and 2007, monsoon consistently arrived on June 25, and in 2009, it was delayed until June 26.

However, the past decade has brought even more variability. The 2025 season marked a dramatic departure from recent trends when the Southwest Monsoon arrived in parts of the Gadchiroli district on May 28, making it the earliest onset in two decades.

This extreme variation, from delays of nearly two weeks to arrivals 18 days ahead of schedule, demonstrates the increasing unpredictability that has characterised Vidarbha's climate.

M L Sahu, a scientist from the Regional Meteorological Centre in Nagpur, explained the distinction between temporary weather variations and longer-term climate shifts. "Weather changes can be broadly categorised into two types: climatic variation and climatic change. Climatic variations are temporary shifts that may occur this year but are not guaranteed to recur annually".

The data reveals a 39.63% increase in the average number of rainy days between 2019-2023 compared to 2014-2018, rising from 57.67 days annually to 80.52 days.

Simultaneously, annual rainfall increased by 38.77%, from an average of 847.22 mm during 2014-2018 to 1,175.73 mm in the subsequent five-year period.

Yet this apparent abundance masks a more complex reality. Vidarbha has experienced what meteorologists describe as a decreasing trend in overall rainfall with a 2-3 year cycle of excess and deficient precipitation. The frequency of extreme weather events has intensified, with districts recording 200-400mm of rainfall within 24-hour periods.

Agricultural Devastation from Extreme Weather Events

The agricultural sector has borne the brunt of these shifting patterns, with crop damage reports becoming an annual occurrence.

In 2024, excessive rains and flooding in Western Vidarbha affected 2.78 lakh hectares of farmland, representing over 8% of the cultivated area under the Amravati division. Yavatmal district alone reported crop damage across 1.70 lakh hectares, affecting more than 18% of its Kharif season cultivation.

The 2022 monsoon season proved particularly destructive, with excessive July rains damaging crops across 800,000 hectares statewide, with significant losses concentrated in Vidarbha and Marathwada regions. Cotton, soybean, tur dal, and other staple crops suffered extensive damage, with an estimated 80% of crops affected in some areas.

Cotton cultivation has shown particular vulnerability to these changing patterns. The area under cotton cultivation in western Vidarbha decreased by 20% compared to previous years as farmers shifted towards soybean and tur crops in response to erratic weather patterns and revised minimum support prices. In eastern Vidarbha's Nagpur division, cotton area expanded to 137% of normal estimates, while soybean cultivation declined.

The retreating monsoon has created additional challenges. In 2022, untimely and frequent rain spells during the harvest period impacted nearly 50% of cotton crops.

The phenomenon known as "particha paus" or retreating monsoon brought high-intensity showers that lasted longer than usual, particularly affecting small and marginal farmers.

Ashok Dalvi, a farmer from Kurunda village in Marathwada, described losing his soybean and turmeric plots overnight due to excessive rains on July 12, 2022. "The excessive rains have washed my investment down the drain," he stated, having spent ₹70,000 on sowing and fertilisers.

Water Management Crisis and Infrastructure Strain

The erratic rainfall patterns have created a paradoxical situation where Vidarbha experiences both flood and drought conditions, sometimes within the same season. Water storage in the region's reservoirs has shown a persistent decline between 2022 and 2025, despite increased rainfall amounts.

By May 2024, live storage in the Nagpur division had fallen to 38.7% of capacity, while the Amravati division recorded 39.5%. Critical reservoirs like Gosikhurd dam in Bhandara reported only 30.2% storage by April 2025, while smaller dams such as Dhapewada in Gondia stood at 26.6% and Nand in Nagpur at just 13.1%.

The Khadakpurna reservoir, serving parts of Buldhana and Jalna, reached critically low levels of 4.12% capacity by April 2025 after being completely depleted in mid-2024.

These figures represent a regional pattern that has continued year after year, highlighting the disconnect between increased rainfall amounts and effective water storage.

The 2023 Southwest Monsoon was recorded at approximately 94% of its long-term average, but with a highly uneven distribution that left Vidarbha experiencing prolonged dry spells during critical periods. This temporal and spatial variability has made water management increasingly challenging for both agricultural and municipal authorities.

Groundwater depletion has accelerated alongside surface water storage challenges. Between 2013-14 and 2022-23, groundwater extraction rates increased significantly across key cotton-producing districts, with Amravati showing a 19% rise and Yavatmal recording a 14% increase.

By 2023, Amravati emerged as the district with the highest groundwater extraction rate in Maharashtra, drawing more than 90% of available reserves.

According to Central Groundwater Board data, one in every ten groundwater assessment units across Maharashtra's top five cotton-producing districts had reached "critical" or "overexploited" levels by 2023, representing twice the share compared to other regions.

Economic and Social Consequences for Rural Communities

Economic and Social Consequences of Monsoon Shifts for Rural Communities

The changing rainfall patterns have created a cascade of economic impacts that extend far beyond immediate crop losses. Cotton and soybeans, the two primary cash crops of Vidarbha, have experienced significant price volatility alongside production challenges.

Soybean traders were offering no more than ₹4,200 per quintal in 2024, well below the minimum support price of over ₹4,800.

Manish Jhadav, a farmer from Yavatmal, highlighted this price-production squeeze: "The rates of soyabean, the second major crop of the region, are already ruling below the minimum support price". This economic pressure compounds the physical challenges posed by erratic weather patterns.

The region's dependence on rain-fed agriculture has made it particularly vulnerable to these changes.

Approximately 93% of agricultural land in Vidarbha depends on rainwater for cultivation, with 65% of the region's population dependent on agricultural activities. This heavy reliance on precipitation makes the region extremely sensitive to variations in monsoon timing and intensity.

Climate change-induced debt has been identified as a contributing factor to farmer distress in the region. The study of marginalised farmers with less than one hectare of agricultural land revealed that high seed costs, late or failed germination, inadequate irrigation facilities, new pest attacks, and crop failures create a cycle of borrowing from moneylenders at high interest rates of 60-120% per annum.

The average outstanding loan per agricultural household in Maharashtra reached ₹82,085 (approximately $994), representing 54% of household income, compared to the national average of ₹74,121. These financial pressures are directly linked to the unpredictability of rainfall patterns and their impact on crop success.

Infrastructure damage has added another layer of economic burden. The 2024 floods led to soil erosion and silt deposition across nearly 5,000 hectares, with approximately 600 hectares expected to be damaged beyond repair. Such damage requires significant investment in land restoration before productive farming can resume.

The humanitarian cost has been equally severe. The 2015 unprecedented floods in traditionally drought-prone districts like Buldhana, Akola, Washim, Amravati, and Yavatmal resulted in 237 deaths statewide, with 112 fatalities in Vidarbha alone. Some 3,800 houses were completely destroyed, while crops across an estimated 600,000-700,000 hectares suffered damage.

Recent extreme weather events continue this pattern of destruction. In July 2024, continuous heavy rains and floods affected approximately 40,000 hectares of farmland, impacting nearly 50,000 farmers across the region.

The damaged crops included cotton, tur, soybean, chilli, rice, and vegetables, representing the full spectrum of local agricultural production.

The agricultural landscape of Vidarbha has undergone a fundamental transformation over the past decade, reshaped by increasingly erratic rainfall patterns.

Farmers now navigate a climate reality where extreme weather events have become routine rather than exceptional occurrences. The region's water infrastructure struggles to reconcile paradoxical conditions of flooding and drought, often within the same agricultural cycle.

These environmental shifts have triggered significant crop realignment, with traditional cotton cultivation giving way to alternative crops in western districts while expanding in the east.

Economic pressures continue mounting as price volatility compounds production challenges, squeezing profit margins for already vulnerable farming communities.

Groundwater depletion accelerates despite increased annual rainfall, revealing critical gaps in water management strategies.

The human cost remains starkly visible in recurring crop losses, debt cycles, and displacement patterns across the region. Vidarbha's agricultural future hinges on developing adaptive frameworks that acknowledge these new climate realities while addressing systemic vulnerabilities exposed by a decade of meteorological turbulence.