Outdated Census Data Clouding Vidarbha’s Policymaking

thenewsdirt
Oct 6
9 min read

Vidarbha, the north-eastern region of Maharashtra, is making critical decisions about development and welfare using population data that is over a decade old.

The last Indian census was in 2011, when Vidarbha accounted for roughly 21% of Maharashtra’s population and about a third of its land area.

Since then, the region’s demographic landscape has shifted significantly, yet official plans and policies still reference 2011 figures. India’s scheduled 2021 Census was postponed and is now expected only in 2026, marking an unprecedented delay.

This five-year gap has left policymakers in Vidarbha without up-to-date numbers on how many people live in its villages and cities, and what their needs are. In effect, the government is attempting to steer the region’s future while looking through a 2011 lens. Experts warn that relying on such outdated data can skew everything from urban infrastructure projects to rural welfare schemes.

The Census is the backbone of evidence-based governance. It captures where and how people live, forming the basis for planning schools, hospitals, roads, and nearly every public service.

Using old data to make new decisions is a big problem, especially in a dynamic region like Vidarbha. Consider how much has changed here since 2011: cities like Nagpur have grown, and rural migration patterns have shifted. In 2011, Nagpur city’s urban agglomeration was about 2.5 million people.

By 2025, estimates put the city’s population at around 3.65 million, a dramatic increase that strains housing, transport and utilities. Even so, civic planning is still pegged to the smaller 2011 count.

Across Vidarbha’s districts, similar gaps exist. Some areas have seen populations rise or household sizes change, while others have seen youth leave for jobs in metros. Without a fresh census, these shifts remain officially unaccounted for, creating blind spots in policy. The result is that policymakers are effectively navigating today’s Vidarbha using yesterday’s map, with all the misdirection that entails.

Gaps in Services and Infrastructure

Running a region on outdated population data has real consequences on the ground. Government plans for healthcare, education and infrastructure are typically based on how many people live in an area and what their demographic profile is.

But without up-to-date data, some places end up with overcrowded public services while others are underutilised.

In Vidarbha’s cities, this can mean hospitals and schools straining to serve far more people than they were designed for.

In its villages, it can mean resources sitting idle because official numbers overestimate how many people remain. Such imbalances exacerbate regional inequalities, with growing communities not getting the aid they now require, and declining areas still receiving resources that might be better allocated elsewhere.

Essentially, the lack of current data makes it impossible for officials to assess and address the real needs of Vidarbha’s population, rural or urban.

Urbanisation is a prime example. Maharashtra’s last census said about 32% of Indians lived in cities, but by now, well over 40% are urban nationally. Vidarbha reflects this trend. It's cities like Nagpur and Amravati have expanded in population and area over the past decade. Yet city authorities are forced to plan water supply, public transport, and housing using 2011 figures that severely undercount today’s urban population.

Outdated numbers can lead to infrastructure that is either inadequate or misplaced. A new housing colony might be built where few people live now, while an existing high-density slum goes unrecognised in official plans because it barely existed a decade ago.

The region’s road networks and public transit expansion also suffer. Traffic planners lack accurate data on how many commuters need services, resulting in congested roads and overburdened buses in fast-growing towns.

Rural Vidarbha faces a mirror-image problem. Some remote districts have seen populations stagnate or even decline as youth migrate out.

But schemes for new schools, anganwadi centres or water supply in these villages might still be sanctioned based on the old population benchmarks.

This mismatch between real demand and allocated resources leads to waste and inefficiency. Officials in charge of block-level development find precise planning particularly difficult without fresh census data, since broad surveys don’t offer the fine detail a full count would.

In short, Vidarbha’s planners are often guessing, and sometimes guessing wrong, about where to build the next clinic or how many teachers to appoint, because they’re missing the updated headcount that should guide these decisions.

Welfare Programmes Missing the Mark

The human cost of this data gap is most evident in welfare programmes. Many government schemes determine eligibility or allocate funds based on population figures. In Vidarbha, as in the rest of India, those figures are stuck in 2011.

Take the Public Distribution System (PDS) for food rations, implemented under the National Food Security Act. By law, the PDS should cover 75% of rural and 50% of urban residents.

Back in 2011, Maharashtra’s population was about 112 million, so ration cards were issued to roughly 81 million people statewide in line with that quota. But the population has grown considerably since.

Across India, experts estimate over 120 million people are now unfairly excluded from subsidised foodgrain because the coverage is still capped by 2011 Census data.

The government admitted in Parliament that it cannot expand food coverage until the next Census is published. This shortfall includes many impoverished families in Vidarbha. Millions who have become eligible for ration cards since 2011 are effectively invisible in the eyes of the system.

At the same time, outdated beneficiary lists mean some who have moved away or died might still be counted, leading to inefficiencies and potential leakages. The net effect is that vulnerable groups, rural poor, tribal communities, and slum-dwellers may be underserved, their food security undermined by an administrative reliance on out-of-date numbers.

Other social programmes face similar issues. Pensions for seniors, scholarships for students, and health coverage schemes all use demographic data to plan budgets and targets.

With Vidarbha’s population structure ageing in some districts and ballooning in others, an obsolete census hampers effective targeting. For instance, planners know that the proportion of elderly citizens is rising, but they lack precise current figures to scale up geriatric services. “By 2050, one-fifth of our population will be elderly… without updated Census figures, policymakers can only guess at the current magnitude of this shift,” one demographer cautioned. Such guesswork is risky.

A welfare state depends on knowing who its intended beneficiaries are and where they are. In Vidarbha’s tribal belts, for example, development funds and tribal sub-plan allocations would ideally be guided by the latest population and literacy data of Scheduled Tribes.

Yet the absence of new census data means social justice programmes may fail to reach all their intended communities, entrenching inequalities.

A comprehensive caste and tribe count in the next census could help tailor affirmative action and measure progress, but until then, the government is essentially working with an incomplete picture of the region’s social fabric.

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), a lifeline for rural labourers, also illustrates the fallout. Its funding in each area is linked to the rural population and demand estimates.

Experts note that the census delay has made it harder to adjust MGNREGS funds to actual needs on the ground.

If a district in Vidarbha has seen an influx of jobless workers returning from cities (as happened after pandemic lockdowns), that won’t fully show up in any official population count yet. Consequently, wage funds and work projects allocated might be less than what the current population requires, leaving some workers with insufficient employment days.

These are not just abstract policy problems. They translate into real hardships for families who might be denied benefits simply because the data identifying them is outdated.

Stalled Reforms and Skewed Representation

Governance itself is hamstrung when basic population data is obsolete. In India, the number of representatives each region gets, from Parliament seats down to panchayat wards, is based on population counts.

Normally, constituencies would be redrawn periodically to reflect population shifts, a process called delimitation.

However, without a fresh census, delimitation remains stalled, and electoral representation cannot be updated to current realities.

Vidarbha’s fast-urbanising pockets, like Nagpur, continue to have the same number of legislators as they did in 2011, even if they now serve many more constituents. Conversely, sparsely populated rural constituencies still cover areas that may have further depopulated. This imbalance raises questions of fair representation.

Recently, India passed a landmark constitutional amendment reserving one-third of legislative seats for women, but this policy cannot be implemented until the census and subsequent delimitation are completed.

For Vidarbha, that means promised political empowerment for women is on hold, pending updated population data and a remapping of constituencies. A routine statistical exercise’s delay is thus directly slowing down democratic reforms.

Fiscal governance is another casualty. Allocating government funds often uses population as a key metric. The national Finance Commission, which decides states’ shares of federal revenue, still relies on old census figures in its formula.

Using outdated numbers can lead to skewed resource distribution that may not match present needs. If Vidarbha’s population growth has outpaced other regions, it should ideally receive a larger slice of funds for schemes like healthcare, education, and rural development.

But until new data is available, budgets continue on the 2011 assumption. Local activists have long argued that Vidarbha has been short-changed in state allocations, contributing to its economic stagnation.

The continued use of an obsolete baseline only deepens this sense of grievance, as any progress in addressing regional imbalances is hard to measure. “It’s clear that Maharashtra is biased against Vidarbha,” one development board member remarked in frustration.

He and others point to the lack of separate planning for our region, a situation now compounded by the data deficit.

Without current statistics to bolster their case, Vidarbha’s leaders find it difficult to press for more colleges, roads or industries on the basis of population share or human development metrics. In essence, the region’s advocacy for its fair share is being undercut by the absence of updated evidence.

A Data Vacuum and Its Fallout

The reliance on outdated census data has created a data vacuum in Vidarbha that undermines effective governance.

In an era when evidence-based policy is the ideal, running on decade-old evidence is inherently problematic.

Independent surveys and proxy databases (like ration card rolls or voter lists) exist, but none offer the comprehensive, granular insight of a full census. Aadhaar, school enrolments, or Covid vaccination lists can hint at population changes, but they are fragmented pieces of the puzzle. Policymakers are essentially trying to assemble Vidarbha’s development jigsaw with many pieces missing.

How many children need Anganwadi nutrition? What is the real literacy rate now? Which districts have the fastest growth? These questions remain inadequately answered. Every year without a new census is a missed opportunity to understand and respond to emerging demographic challenges.

Meanwhile, the region’s challenges do not wait. Vidarbha continues to grapple with farmer distress, industrial underinvestment, and infrastructure gaps that a targeted policy approach could mitigate. But targeting requires accurate aim, and that comes from up-to-date data.

If the status quo persists until 2026, critical decisions will continue to be made on information that grows more out of date each year. The risks are not abstract.

They manifest as misallocated funds, ill-conceived projects, and vulnerable citizens slipping through cracks. For instance, a delayed census meant there was little reliable data on migration when thousands of labourers returned to Vidarbha during the 2020 lockdowns. Planners were flying blind in managing that crisis.

In development terms, Vidarbha has long been considered a lagging region in Maharashtra, with lower per-capita income and fewer industries than the state’s western half. Closing this gap requires intensive monitoring and course-correction, which in turn demands current statistics on poverty, employment and population growth.

A new census would provide a clear lens to gauge if policies are working or not, and to recalibrate efforts accordingly. In its absence, the government is operating on partial visibility.

Despite these challenges, there are finally signs of movement. Officials indicate the next census will incorporate new features, possibly including a comprehensive caste survey, whenever it does occur.

That could yield even richer data for regions like Vidarbha, which have significant Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe populations.

However, the priority for most observers is speed and accuracy: completing the count as soon as safely possible, and releasing the findings without further delay. Each passing day without updated figures is a day when policies run the risk of missing their mark.

As one analyst succinctly put it, the longer the delay, the greater the risk of policy missteps, resource misallocation, and social unrest.

In Vidarbha, where developmental needs are urgent, those are risks the region can ill afford. Policymakers and citizens alike are eagerly awaiting the fresh census data – the essential compass readings to guide Vidarbha’s journey ahead.